Forgotten Henley
With the Irish Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and now the saga of the Zimbabwean Presidential elections riding high on the news agenda, the by-election in Henley today has largely been forgotten by the national media.
In part this is because the result is practically a foregone conclusion. The Conservatives have held the seat since 1910 and at the last General Election, Boris Johnson held a comfortable majority of over twelve thousand.
While William Hague has been doing the rounds on the television networks saying that the Conservatives will take no vote for granted, Henley is still very much considered a Conservative safe seat by all parties and the majority of political activists.
With Labour out of the running and the Lib Dims highly unlikely to spring a surprise, the only thing left to watch for will be the turnout of Conservatives. If the Conservative vote in Henley drops badly as it did in Bromley then this will only go to prove correct the old mantra that it is Governments that lose elections rather than oppositions which win them.
Why, you may ask? Well, when I have been out canvassing in constituencies across the South West, the people I have met will say that they hate Labour and the Government and really want a change so they will vote Conservative next time around.
They won’t say that, yes, Dave’s the man or that they really agree with what the Conservatives are currently proposing (whatever we are proposing;) it is purely and simply that they want shot of the current Government and that voting Tory is the easiest way to achieve that aim – it is not to give a ringing endorsement of the Conservative party and its policies.
It was much the same in the lead up to the 1997 General Election. People really wanted rid of the Conservative Government and were therefore prepared to vote Labour whatever they were saying. However, in the decade since, a few people have become slightly more cynical and I would say that the ‘goodwill’ shown to Blair was greater than that currently shown towards our man David Cameron.
As I said, if the Conservative vote in Henley collapses or drops off dramatically then it will only highlight that there is no real reason to currently endorse the Conservatives alone in an election when Labour or the Government cannot be noticeably punished.
By actually coming up with some decent, popular policies we could really gain the support of the electorate at large and stimulate them into voting Conservative at by-elections and at a General Election. However, for the moment at least, David Cameron’s Conservatives are keeping quiet. We shall see what the next year and a half brings.
