Smoke And Mirrors

It has now been a week since David Davis made the surprise announcement that he intended to stand down as an MP and fight a by-election on the issue of the Government’s ‘42 days’ bill.

As a man of principle, unlike so many of our useless Members of Parliament, Mr Davis has put his beliefs and country before his political career and for that should be applauded. As a result Labour are running scared and have refused to field a candidate to help defend their stance.

Unsurprisingly, Gordon Brown has attempted to label Mr Davis’ resignation as a crude stunt while various Government Ministers have said the by-election to be a waste of tax payers’ money and are calling for Mr Davis to pay for its costs – which is curious since the Labour party under Brown and Blair have carelessly wasted billions on various crackpot schemes and initiatives, so are hardly in a position to lecture anyone else on the use of public funds.

However, while Mr Davis is undoubtedly a man of principle and a strong opponent of this Government’s continual attacks on our civil liberties, there is almost certainly more to his resignation than meets the eye. This is as much about the political direction of the Conservative party as it is about Government legislation.

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Against Not For

There is a bar which serves food at my University. It has always been pretty dire in my opinion, so I know that if I go in with very low hopes then I will not be disappointed and in fact might even occasionally be very surprised.

The same goes for yesterday’s by-election in Crewe and Nantwich. I did not go to bed last night with expectations of the Conservatives winning yet they have managed it with a pretty comfortable majority – for now at least.

I am really somewhat surprised by this result. Although I correctly predicted the Labour vote and most of the independent runners and riders, I was wrong in judging the strength (or rather lack) of the Liberal Democrats and the surge in the Conservative vote which increased well beyond their General Election share. Considering that in all previous by-elections the Conservative vote had fallen below General Election levels then Crewe and Nantwich was certainly somewhat of a turnaround.

Still, it is plain that this by-election was more about what Mr Brown and his Labour party had done to annoy sections of the electorate rather than what the Conservatives were proposing. Let us be quite clear, this was a vote against the Government not a vote for the Conservatives. Likewise, one by-election has not changed the British political landscape overnight. Labour still form our British administration and the unelected bureaucrats and politicians in Brussels still control our true Government and to an ever greater extent regulate our lives.

Yet, Crewe and Nantwich may foreshadow events to come. When I go out canvassing in various constituencies across the South West there is certainly a discernible mood in the air that desires a change of Government – but it is at the moment unfocused and somewhat hesitant. People dislike the Government but they do not quite yet want to vote for the Conservatives.

As I said before, the Conservatives need to come up with a number of policies that crucially differentiate them from New Labour. What’s more, whether in opposition or in Government, we need to massively roll back or leave the European Union – otherwise the next General Election will simply provide a change of faces at the top without any change of policy or direction.

Crewe And Nantwich

With just ten days until polling day, campaigning for the by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is now in full swing with the Conservative party clearly sensing that victory is possible.

An ICM poll of 1,004 people by telephone in Crewe and Nantwich for the Daily Mail put the Conservatives on 43% while Labour on 39% and the Liberal Democrats on 16%. However, once again I am not convinced that this poll will reflect the final result we shall see on the night.

As is the case with most parliamentary by-elections, a diverse range of candidates have chosen to stand including UKIP, the Green party, and the Monster Raving Loony Party. The ICM poll does not appear to take into account ‘other parties’ running. Therefore, even on a reduced turnout I doubt we will see any candidate exceed 40% of the vote.

What’s more, it perhaps goes without saying that the Liberal Democrats will poll better than they would tend to in a general election because at a by-election they are able to pile their national resources and activists into one seat. At the last General Election the Lib Dems took 18.6% of the vote. I expect that they will not only increase their vote but also their overall share by picking up a good few anti-Tory and disgruntled Labour voters.

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Vagaries Of Perception

I don’t believe for one moment that at the next General Election the Conservatives would take 49% of the vote while Labour only 23%.

It just is not going to happen. People can say whatever they want when answering opinion polls but when it actually counts many would still vote Labour having previously said otherwise.

The problem is that the Conservatives are still unpopular; perhaps less unpopular than Labour are currently, but nonetheless still unpopular. The opinion polls and statistics highlighted in the newspapers rarely tell the full story – that of declining turnouts and a fall in the number of people saying they are certain or likely to vote.

While the Conservatives may supposedly be set to take a higher percentage of the vote than Labour, the actual number of votes set to be cast at the next election will probably decline meaning that each party will receive fewer votes in total. Turnout may only increase slightly if the result appears to be particularly close, similar to the increased turnout in the recent Mayoral elections.

There is of course also the fact that opinion polls are based upon uniform swings and General Elections do not produce exact uniform swings from constituency to constituency. For example, the Conservatives poll very well in the South East but very poorly in Scotland. Overall polling figures often do not reflect such regional differences.

The upcoming Crewe and Nantwich by-election will almost undoubtedly represent another wake-up call for the party hierarchy and the small number of Cameron-fanatical members who seem to increasingly frequent ConservativeHome.

If the Conservatives fail to win the seat, then not only will it have been over twenty years since the party won a parliamentary by-election from any opposition, but stark proof that the much discussed opinion polls of bubble politics are almost worthless.