The Freedom By-Election

Not all that much of a surprise was the re-election of David Davis as MP for Haltemprice and Howden in the by-election held on Thursday.

As had been predicted, Mr Davis comfortably won the poll by some fifteen thousand votes against an assortment of twenty seven candidates that conspicuously lacked any representation from the Labour party.

During the early hours and days of his resignation, Mr Davis stirred up quite a media and public storm. Across the country Conservative Associations received phone calls from members of the public telling of their support for David Davis and the issues of freedom despite never having voted Conservative.

However, come the day of the vote and result, the ever fickle media’s interest had worn away and very little was made of the result – which I suppose in part is unsurprising given that Mr Davis received no challenge from a Labour party candidate over the issues of freedom surrounding detention without charge.

As I commented previously, I suspect that David Cameron would have rather preferred to back the Government’s plans on detention without charge if he’d had the opportunity. However, I think it was very much down to David Davis’ actions that the Conservative party has now publicly pledged to do away with the legislation if it forms the next Westminster administration.

Conservative Thames Victory

The Conservative candidate, John Howell has comfortably won the by-election in Henley as originally predicted with a small swing to the Conservatives while the Labour vote collapsed.

However, the Liberal Democrats share of the vote did also increase slightly despite the fact that they spent more time playing the man rather than the ball in what was for them a typically ‘negative’ by-election campaign.

While overall turnout fell it would appear that the Conservative vote held up reasonably well especially when considering that this was not a high profile by-election in the eyes of the national media in the same way as Crewe and Nantwich.

Much hard work and effort was put into this campaign by MPs and party activists who, much like David Cameron this morning, will no doubt be very pleased by this result as it vindicated their ‘positive’ campaigning approach without revealing actual policies.

This may hint that the Conservative voting electorate are in some respects optimistic that David Cameron will be more conservative in Government than he is saying he will be in opposition.

Forgotten Henley

With the Irish Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and now the saga of the Zimbabwean Presidential elections riding high on the news agenda, the by-election in Henley today has largely been forgotten by the national media.

In part this is because the result is practically a foregone conclusion. The Conservatives have held the seat since 1910 and at the last General Election, Boris Johnson held a comfortable majority of over twelve thousand.

While William Hague has been doing the rounds on the television networks saying that the Conservatives will take no vote for granted, Henley is still very much considered a Conservative safe seat by all parties and the majority of political activists.

With Labour out of the running and the Lib Dims highly unlikely to spring a surprise, the only thing left to watch for will be the turnout of Conservatives. If the Conservative vote in Henley drops badly as it did in Bromley then this will only go to prove correct the old mantra that it is Governments that lose elections rather than oppositions which win them.

Why, you may ask? Well, when I have been out canvassing in constituencies across the South West, the people I have met will say that they hate Labour and the Government and really want a change so they will vote Conservative next time around.

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A Matter Of Principle

The announcement by David Davis that he intends to resign as an MP over the issue of forty two days detention is indeed a shocking one.

Most MPs that chose to resign have usually been grudgingly forced to do so after being shamefully exposed by the media with their hand caught in the till or up a woman’s skirt – or something even worse.

Indeed, so rare an event is it when an MP does anything on principle, especially taking the decision to resign over their beliefs in order to highlight the issue further, that the media establishment doesn’t quite know what to say or do with itself.

Regardless of media reaction, I expect that many people, both in Haltemprice and Howden and throughout Britain, may well be rather impressed by Mr Davis’ decision. Bearing that in mind along with the fact that it appears that the Lib Dems and potentially Labour will not be fielding candidates against him, he should therefore be comfortably re-elected.

Yet unfortunately, as always, there is a downside to this latest development. Once again media focus will regrettably be drawn away from the Lisbon Treaty and any referendum demands currently being made, and quite possibly the result of the vote in the Irish Referendum tomorrow. Not that it would have made much difference of course, but still disappointing nonetheless.