A Matter Of Principle

The announcement by David Davis that he intends to resign as an MP over the issue of forty two days detention is indeed a shocking one.

Most MPs that chose to resign have usually been grudgingly forced to do so after being shamefully exposed by the media with their hand caught in the till or up a woman’s skirt – or something even worse.

Indeed, so rare an event is it when an MP does anything on principle, especially taking the decision to resign over their beliefs in order to highlight the issue further, that the media establishment doesn’t quite know what to say or do with itself.

Regardless of media reaction, I expect that many people, both in Haltemprice and Howden and throughout Britain, may well be rather impressed by Mr Davis’ decision. Bearing that in mind along with the fact that it appears that the Lib Dems and potentially Labour will not be fielding candidates against him, he should therefore be comfortably re-elected.

Yet unfortunately, as always, there is a downside to this latest development. Once again media focus will regrettably be drawn away from the Lisbon Treaty and any referendum demands currently being made, and quite possibly the result of the vote in the Irish Referendum tomorrow. Not that it would have made much difference of course, but still disappointing nonetheless.

Against Not For

There is a bar which serves food at my University. It has always been pretty dire in my opinion, so I know that if I go in with very low hopes then I will not be disappointed and in fact might even occasionally be very surprised.

The same goes for yesterday’s by-election in Crewe and Nantwich. I did not go to bed last night with expectations of the Conservatives winning yet they have managed it with a pretty comfortable majority – for now at least.

I am really somewhat surprised by this result. Although I correctly predicted the Labour vote and most of the independent runners and riders, I was wrong in judging the strength (or rather lack) of the Liberal Democrats and the surge in the Conservative vote which increased well beyond their General Election share. Considering that in all previous by-elections the Conservative vote had fallen below General Election levels then Crewe and Nantwich was certainly somewhat of a turnaround.

Still, it is plain that this by-election was more about what Mr Brown and his Labour party had done to annoy sections of the electorate rather than what the Conservatives were proposing. Let us be quite clear, this was a vote against the Government not a vote for the Conservatives. Likewise, one by-election has not changed the British political landscape overnight. Labour still form our British administration and the unelected bureaucrats and politicians in Brussels still control our true Government and to an ever greater extent regulate our lives.

Yet, Crewe and Nantwich may foreshadow events to come. When I go out canvassing in various constituencies across the South West there is certainly a discernible mood in the air that desires a change of Government – but it is at the moment unfocused and somewhat hesitant. People dislike the Government but they do not quite yet want to vote for the Conservatives.

As I said before, the Conservatives need to come up with a number of policies that crucially differentiate them from New Labour. What’s more, whether in opposition or in Government, we need to massively roll back or leave the European Union – otherwise the next General Election will simply provide a change of faces at the top without any change of policy or direction.

Crewe And Nantwich

With just ten days until polling day, campaigning for the by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is now in full swing with the Conservative party clearly sensing that victory is possible.

An ICM poll of 1,004 people by telephone in Crewe and Nantwich for the Daily Mail put the Conservatives on 43% while Labour on 39% and the Liberal Democrats on 16%. However, once again I am not convinced that this poll will reflect the final result we shall see on the night.

As is the case with most parliamentary by-elections, a diverse range of candidates have chosen to stand including UKIP, the Green party, and the Monster Raving Loony Party. The ICM poll does not appear to take into account ‘other parties’ running. Therefore, even on a reduced turnout I doubt we will see any candidate exceed 40% of the vote.

What’s more, it perhaps goes without saying that the Liberal Democrats will poll better than they would tend to in a general election because at a by-election they are able to pile their national resources and activists into one seat. At the last General Election the Lib Dems took 18.6% of the vote. I expect that they will not only increase their vote but also their overall share by picking up a good few anti-Tory and disgruntled Labour voters.

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The Buffoon Wins

After second preference votes were taken into account, Boris Johnson has been declared Mayor of London, defeating Ken Livingstone by 53% to 47% which was roughly what YouGov predicted.

The other day I heard someone say of the now newly elected Mayor of London that behind the thin veneer of a buffoon lies… a buffoon.

Yet, Simon Heffer writing in the Telegraph on Tuesday believes that behind the clever façade of a buffoon lies a calculating and ruthlessly ambitious individual. He says of Boris:

I want to dismiss a prejudice about Mr Johnson, and I do so as one who has known him for the past 20 years. It is that he is a buffoon. He isn’t. The act is calculated and it has required serious application and timing of the sort of which only a clever man is capable.

Whether or not the ambitious Mr Johnson actually makes a good go of being Mayor is something else entirely – but for the moment it doesn’t really matter. He won and that’s all that counts – that, and rather pleasingly Ken Livingstone has finally been ditched.

Elsewhere around the country the Conservatives have made substantial gains in local elections and the Labour party equally substantial loses. Whether these results show an increase in support for the Conservatives or people simply not turning out to vote Labour will be both interesting and important.

In comparison and of very little importance, the chattering metropolitan classes in the media have already begun their usual pointless speculation on whether these results, if reflected at a general election, would give the Conservatives power and a working majority. The point is of course that these results would not be reflected at a general election (though they may show general trends) as they were undertaken in completely different circumstances. However, oblivious as ever in their small bubble, the media still insist on filling column inches with such drivel because they can find nothing else meaningful to write about.

The bottom line is that despite seemingly good recent election results our man Dave still has a long way to go before he can even hope of being Prime Minister.